By Rod D. Martin on March 13, 2025
Don’t let the Enemedia lie to you: the ouster of the leftwing anti-American government at Tuesday’s election opens the door. And a deal with America could make Greenlanders crazy rich.
Greenland’s upset election on Tuesday opens the door to “the art of the deal”.
The island’s outgoing government, led by the leftist anti-American Inuit Ataqatigiit party and its leader Múte Egede, took a hard line against Trump. Now they’re out.
It was a big upset. The Greenland Demokraatit Party, and incoming Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen, more than tripled their vote share from the previous election, from 9% to 30%. Their likely coalition partner, Naleraq, secured 24.5%: one of its most prominent leaders has been vocally pro-American and even attended Trump’s inauguration.
Nielsen’s party has not taken so strong a pro-U.S. stand. But it’s a center-right, pro-business coalition that favors independence from Denmark and economic development the Danes cannot (or will not) provide. That’s a bigger deal than you think: 72% of Greenland’s people are under 40. Needless to say, job opportunities are limited, and the island cannot afford to lose any of its just 57,000 people (in a land mass bigger than the entire Louisiana Purchase) to emigration. Someone has to provide the technology to develop the island, and the investment to create that future.
It won’t be Denmark. It hasn’t been the EU. But China is already investing, and with that comes strategic strings, if not steel cables. That is every bit as unacceptable for the United States as Chinese control of the Panama Canal.
Enter Donald Trump.
Polling Data
In typical fashion, the Enemedia is pushing a Danish poll that shows 85% of Greenlanders reject a deal with the U.S. But is that actually true?
In January, I told you about a different poll that found 57% of Greenlanders favor joining the United States. That video is still highly relevant: you should take a few minutes to watch it. But the basics are below.
Young Greenlanders (18-40) were particularly interested in becoming part of the United States, seeing it as an avenue for greater prosperity and freedom. And did I mention that 72% of the population is under 40?
Driving factors included:
• More economic opportunity and employment.
• Much stronger belief in the U.S. properly managing the environment than Denmark (take that, Euroweenies).
• The “historical trauma” of Danish colonization.Subscribe
The usual suspects poo-hooed this poll because it didn’t fit their narrative (and because they hate Donald Trump). The problem? Patriot Polling was among the most accurate pollsters in the 2024 U.S. election, calling the Presidential race perfectly, with 97.1% accuracy in U.S. Senate races.
They’re good at what they do.
But the truth is, no one knows for sure. Both polls had a similar sample size and found wildly divergent results.
What we do know is that the only poll that matters is the election. And Tuesday’s election kicked out the strident anti-American government in favor of a new majority coalition that’s clearly open to some sort of deal, and in an upset. The fact that it was an upset tells you the quality of the usual Greenlandic and Danish pundits, which is roughly the same as the pollsters who had Brexit losing, and Hillary beating Trump by 12 points.
What we also know is that once a negotiation starts, anything is possible. And the new government isn’t going to pre-commit to anything before that starts. Whatever happens will happen in the room.
So What Might a Deal Look Like?
Enter Donald Trump. He wants China out. He wants to secure the approaches to North America. And he loves to make a deal where everyone wins.
Well, as a matter of fact, that deal is pretty easy to make. We already have the template.
It’s called “free association”. It’s a model the U.S. has successfully implemented with Pacific nations such as Palau, Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands. Each of those tiny countries (huge geographically, minuscule in population, just like Greenland) is a sovereign, independent nation. But each of them also gets many of the benefits of being part of the United States, including America taking full responsibility for their defense.
And this is the part the pundits leave out. Independence is expensive. You learned this when you first got a job. For a country to be independent, it has to establish a military, build and staff embassies, and unless it’s a libertarian utopia, pay for its own welfare system. None of which Greenland can do.
Indeed, Denmark currently supports Greenland to the tune of $1 Billion annually. What it doesn’t do is provide the technology and investment necessary to develop the island, much less provide a future for its very young citizens, partly because it doesn’t want to, partly because it can’t. Denmark is pretty small too.
Under a free association compact, Greenland would be independent without the costs. It would maintain full sovereignty while aligning closely with the U.S. for defense and economic collaboration.
A U.S.-Greenland free association compact would:Subscribe
- End Dependence on Denmark: Offering Greenland financial stability and independence.
- Secure Strategic Resources: Creating high-paying jobs, guaranteeing American access to critical minerals, and cutting China out of the picture.
- Expand America’s Military Presence: Among other things, upgrading Thule Air Base (recently renamed Pituffik Space Base) into a robust Arctic command center.
- Control Arctic Trade Routes: Ensuring emerging Arctic shipping remains under Western control, while protecting the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) Gap, and thus the U.S. East Coast and Atlantic sea lanes, from Russian encroachment.
- Build Greenland’s Economy: Developing infrastructure and industries that benefit both Greenland and U.S. strategic interests.
There’s another angle. If Greenland becomes an economic powerhouse, the resulting increase in tourism (and tourist spending) — currently about 10% of Alaska’s — could make the country crazy rich. But its exemption from U.S. income tax, concurrent with its inclusion into the America economy, would give it a chance to become the kind of offshore financial center Bermuda and the Caymans are now, and that (through its Act 60) Puerto Rico is trying to become. And unlike those places, it’s a quick flight to both New York and London.
But there’s only one way any of that is ever going to happen.
For Greenlanders, this is a have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too kind of deal. And let’s be real: is there anything stopping Donald Trump from just offering each of the just 57,000 Greenlanders $100,000? $500,000? Plus all the rest of this?
This is a deal that can get done.
Why Should America Care?
Greenland is strategically invaluable. Its massive reserves of oil and natural gas are vital resources that China is aggressively pursuing. It sits atop 10 percent of the world’s rare earth minerals — vital materials that fuel everything from iPhones to F-35 fighter jets. Its position at the crossroads of increasingly navigable Arctic shipping routes (if you believe in that sort of thing) makes it potentially central to global trade. And the island’s strategic position in the North Atlantic secures critical existing shipping lanes and counters Russia’s escalating Arctic presence, not to mention its ability to project power into the Atlantic.
Russia has significantly expanded its military infrastructure in the region, reopening Cold War bases and deploying advanced icebreakers. Meanwhile, China’s strategic investments in Greenland’s mining sector pose significant threats to U.S. technological and defense supply chains.
